美國對外關係，民國36年（主曆1947年），遠東：中華民國，第七卷。
駐南京大使館檔案，批號F–79，800 福爾摩沙
駐臺北領事（拉夫布雷克）致駐中華民國大使（司徒雷登）輿情報告
編號：36。 民國36年（主曆1947年）1月10日，臺北。
大使鈞鑒：我有幸向大使館提交一些盡可能有幫助的觀察，指的是關於目前台灣民眾的心理不安，日益受到關於美國的活動與影響美國聲望的謠言所左右之事。
12月20日之抗議美國對在日本的福爾摩沙中國人（Formosan Chinese）「不公」的事件(譯註：澀谷事件)與目前在北平(譯註：民國35年12月24日沈崇案)及中國其它地方針對美方作法所發生的激烈抗議的時間點幾乎重疊，如果真有證據的話，這就間接意味著這幾件事之間可能有共同的陰謀。只是目前沒有發現足以建立兩者之間的關係；不過一般相信的是其進一步的企圖乃是要影響美國在福爾摩沙中國人眼中的地位，而且應該跟現在在台灣人之間流傳的—通常是難以置信的—許多謠言來一起理解。
臺灣到處都在謠傳美國和蘇聯正處於戰爭狀態，或者即將開戰；美國將在這裡開展大規模的軍事行動，同時此間政府正秘密地準備在島上進行軍事行動。而另一個謠言則稱中華民國已將這座島嶼賣給美國，來交換作為軍事用途的大批貸款。
臺灣新竹地方法院輕率地下令修改（而非廢除）防空洞建設法，此舉立刻被解讀為戰事迫在眉睫。在臺北有許多人相信住在基隆（約29公里外）的人已被下令疏散到山上，除非他們的工作對公共服務與國防極為重要。大家普遍相信此間政府已經下達密令要求所有的政府工廠都必須備妥防空洞，並針對轟炸採取應對措施。有些人甚至以為基隆已經遭到轟炸了，另外其他人則認為日本的名古屋已經被蘇聯軍隊轟炸，而沖繩 [頁424]則正被「不明飛機」轟炸中。
中華民國空軍正在公開地將彈藥運到各地的彈藥庫，這似乎更進一步證實了那些謠傳的故事。
《人民導報》（Jen Min Tao Pao,最近幾個月一直反美）12月4日刊載了一則新聞，全文如下：
「根據美國領事館放出的消息，大部份的美國空軍將會部署在本省，鄰近台中的機場已被選定為基地。據說，美國空軍也打算在台中蓋一座B–29的工廠，並且正積極在準備工作中。」
一份關於擴大和修補鄰近台中的機場與工廠的合同已經發包給一家臺灣的公司，當然，當地人認為中華民國沒有能力製造飛機，美國政府才是合約背後的推手。12月28日，有兩名台中人打電話到領事館確認此事，以便籌劃關於預期因大量美國人湧入而來的相關「生意」。大家普遍認為多達三十萬的美軍即將到來，而在菲律賓與其它地方同美軍一起服役的臺灣年輕人經常來訪，想在預期到來的美國軍隊裡找份工作；甚至有一次是十六個人一起來的。關於預期湧入的美軍這件事還未聽聞到批評的聲浪，有些謠傳則是提到已經有一千六百人在淡水河港口上岸了。
目前針對謠言反應如此劇烈與害怕日本人的武力回歸，極有可能來自普遍流傳的故事，亦即某些之前出名但身份不明的日本人，在離開基隆被遣返之際，吹噓說日本是被美國而不是被中華民國擊敗的，二十年內日本將再重返福爾摩沙。這給了當地人更加堅信由於美國對統一失敗且經濟復甦無望的中華民國失望之故，現在正全心全力準備協助日本的戰後重建。
在民國35年（主曆1946年）這一年，人們普遍認為美國陸軍及美國陸軍航空隊有意在臺灣建造大型的基地。地面部隊在此間持續的到來（依序為約一百人的福爾摩沙遣返小組 | Formosa Repatriation Group、約十人的軍墓登記與搜尋小隊，以及五個人組成的第二次遣返小組），加上最近由琉球群島基地司令部所執行的短期空中偵察任務，對這些公眾謠言增添了視覺上的「確認」。
最極端的故事[頁425]則大概是說蔣委員長（註1）10月1日抵達臺灣，與麥克阿瑟將軍（註2）進行秘密會議，安排好何時要將臺灣賣給美國，作為蔣委員長交換繼續進行與共產黨作戰所需的鉅額花費。這個故事已在民間流傳兩個月，而此刻正與否認共產黨指控國民黨在美國擁有大筆可用的資金一說連結在一塊兒。目前所聽聞到這個謠言的所有版本都沒有關於謠傳的售賣的評論。
最近的「澀谷事件」(Shibuya Incident)（註3）的抗議基本上是關於臺灣人首次試圖將其意見予以組織、具體化並且作為指導留日臺灣人對抗外部的組織；失敗的原因是因為留日臺灣人本身不確定他們是否與法有據。不清楚狀況同時也不成熟的政治領袖在此場合被慫恿而鼓吹一個僅有少數人完全明瞭的「理由」。一些留日臺灣人坦言他們這些最近自日本被遣返的人當中，有太多人知道這些靠小聰明與耍手段在日本生存的留日臺灣人當中有多少的無賴。從演講、廣播、宣傳小冊和談話之中可以完全意識到在澀谷事件中的留日臺灣人「很可能是完全錯誤的」，並且隨後試圖以擁有「勝利」國身分的理由來為自己的抗議行動開釋。12月20日，有一則沒有評論或查證的新聞指出臺灣行政長官公署（註4）
最近收到駐日盟軍總司令（SCAP，註5）的協議備忘錄，指稱在七、八、九月間違反法律的三百個案例（類型未指明），紀錄中，遭指控的留日臺灣人在同一時間日本人人數的兩倍多。
大眾的不安反映了大陸與臺灣在政治和經濟狀況上的不確定性，而即將在大陸展開的大規模內戰在這裡似乎也已感受到；從沿海地區不斷湧入臺灣的各階層人士（來自最貧窮階層的比率持續上升）所帶來關於對岸的情勢說法落差甚大，甚至互相矛盾。警察系統[頁426]並未改善，大規模搶劫案件此起彼落。
一群受過良好教育的代表人士（據聞現任臺北市長與他們交好）談到在他們討論臺灣的問題時，他們的結論是隨著大陸局勢出現閃失時—不管是全面戰爭或者當前經濟結構的崩潰—臺灣都必發生危機，此時針對臺灣控制權的爭鬥必隨之而來。他們之間談到他們有三件事請求美國。他們打算請求美國不要像日本投降後那樣將大陸的軍隊運到臺灣；他們也打算請求美國派遣技術與行政顧問來臺灣，協助他們渡過堅決不想捲入大陸混亂局勢所帶來的危機之中；最後，他們打算請求美國提供財政與物資協助以重建臺灣的工商業，他們認為在強調國外獨立貿易的自由貿易與企業政策下，工商業重建速度會比（像現在一樣）單單只與長官公署貿易局及其它官方機構合作快多了。
拉夫-J.-布雷克(Ralph J. Blake)
敬上
註1. 蔣中正，中華民國國民政府總統。
註2. 陸軍將軍，道格拉斯-A.-麥克阿瑟，駐日本盟軍總司令。
註3. 民國35年（主曆1946年）7月19日，發生於日本東京澀谷車站附近的事件，數十名留日臺灣人遭日本警察開槍射擊。
註4. 臺灣行政長官公署成立於日軍投降與中華民國佔領生效之際，時間是民國34年（主曆1945年）10月25日。不同於中華民國其它省份，它不是一個正規的省級政府，因為行政長官公署與中華民國行政院之間的關係非比尋常，具有近乎獨裁專制的權力。
註5. 麥克阿瑟將軍之命令。
FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1947, THE FAR EAST: CHINA, VOLUME VII
Nanking Embassy Files, Lot F–79, 800 Formosa
The Consul at Taipei ( Blake ) to the Ambassador in China ( Stuart )
No. 36 Taipei , January 10, 1947.
Sir: I have the honor to submit as of possible interest to the Embassy some observations upon the present uneasiness of the public mind in Taiwan which is increasingly disturbed by rumors concerning the activities, and affecting the prestige of, the United States.
The December 20 protests against American “injustice” toward Formosan Chinese in Japan so closely coincide with the current outcry against American behaviour in Peiping and elsewhere in China as to suggest possible common inspiration. No evidence has been discovered to date to establish a link, if it exists, but it is believed that further attempts to affect America’s position in the eyes of the Formosan Chinese may be anticipated and should be understood in relation to the many rumors—often fantastic—now in circulation among the people of Taiwan.
Taiwan is alive with rumors that America and Russia are, or shortly will be, at war, that America is about to initiate a large scale military activities here and that the Government here is secretly preparing for military action on the island. It is alleged in another rumor that China has sold the island to the United States in return for a huge credit for military use.
The Magistrate of Hsin Chu-hsien indiscreetly ordered a revision (not the repeal) of air raid shelter construction decrees, which was immediately interpreted to mean that war was imminent. It is believed by many in Taipei that the residents of Keelung (18 miles distant) have been ordered to disperse to the hills unless their work is essential to public services and defense. It is widely believed that the Government has given secret orders that all Government factories must prepare air raid shelters and take measures in anticipation of bombing. Some even believe that Keelung has already been bombed, while there is belief by others that Nagoya, in Japan, has been bombed by Russian forces and that Okinawa is being[Page 424] bombed by “unidentified planes”.
The Chinese Air Force is now openly moving munitions into local dumps, which may seem further to confirm such stories.
The Jen Min Tao Pao, (consistently anti-American of recent months) on December 4 carried the following item, in full:
“According to information released by the American Consulate, a large section of the United States Air Force will be stationed in the province and the airfield near Taichung has been chosen as its base. The USAAF is also intending to build a B–29 factory at Taichung and is positively making all preparations, it is said.”
A contract has been let to a Formosan firm to enlarge and repair an airfield and a factory near Taichung. It is, of course, assumed locally that in as much as China cannot produce airplanes, the United States Government is behind the contract. Two Taichung persons called at the Consulate December 28 to confirm this, in order to plan “business” in connection with the expected influx of Americans. It is widely believed that as many as 300,000 American troops are soon to arrive. Young Formosans who have served with United States forces in the Philippines and elsewhere are frequent visitors, seeking employment with the expected American troops. At one time 16 called in a body. No criticism has yet been heard of this anticipated influx of American forces. Some rumors allege that 1,600 men have already landed at the river port of Tamsui.
The current susceptibility to rumors and fears of a return of Japanese in force may spring from the widely circulated story that certain formerly prominent but unidentified Japanese, upon leaving Keelung for repatriation, boasted that in as much as Japan was not defeated by China but by America, the Japanese would be back in Formosa within twenty years. This gives local emphasis to the belief that America, disappointed in China’s failure to achieve unity and economic recovery, is now prepared to support Japan’s recovery as fully as possible.
It was commonly believed throughout 1946 that the United States Army and United States Army Air Forces intended to establish large bases on Taiwan. The continuing presence of ground forces here (successively the Formosa Repatriation Group of approximately 100 men, the Graves Registration and Search Detachment of approximately 10 men and the second Repatriation Team of five Americans), plus the recent brief aerial reconnaissance mission operating from the Ryukyu Islands Base Command, have added visual “confirmation” of public rumor.
The most extreme story is to the effect that [Page 425]the Generalissimo1 came to Taiwan in October to have a secret meeting with General MacArthur,2 at which time the sale of Taiwan to the United States was arranged in return for a huge sum which the Generalissimo needs for prosecution of war against the Communists. The story has persisted in circulation for two months and is now linked with the current repudiation of Communist charges that the Kuomintang has enormous sums at its disposal in the United States. None of the versions of this rumor heard so far have carried criticism of the alleged sale.
The recent “Shibuya Incident”3 protest was the first attempt to organize, crystallize and direct Formosan opinion on an issue fundamentally Formosan versus an outside group. It failed because the Formosans themselves are not sure that they have a case. Political leadership is confused and immature, and was prompted in this instance to promote a “cause” of which very few people were wholly convinced. Some Formosans say that too many of themselves, repatriated from Japan in recent months, know how many rascals there are among Formosan Chinese now living by their wits in Japan. Speeches, broadcasts, pamphlets and conversations are full of realization that the Formosans at Shibuya “may have been one hundred per cent wrong,” followed by an attempt to justify the protests on the grounds of identity with a “victor” nation. A news item appeared December 20 which states without comment or verification that the Taiwan Government General4 has received a memorandum recently from SCAP5 stating that during July, August and September the 300 cases of law violation (category unspecified) charges against Formosans are more than double the number recorded in the same time against Japanese.
Public uneasiness reflects the uncertainties of political and economic conditions both on the mainland and on Taiwan. The seeming imminence of large scale civil war on the mainland is felt here. The continuing influx to Taiwan of people of all classes from all coastal areas (with a rising percentage from the poorest levels) brings conflicting interpretations of conditions across the channel. The police system does not [頁426]improve. Large scale robberies continue to take place.
Representatives of a group of well educated men (with whom the Mayor of Taipei is said now to be associating himself) observe that in their discussions of Taiwan’s problems they conclude that with any crisis on the mainland—either full scale war or collapse of the present economic structure—there will be a crisis on Taiwan, during which a struggle for control of Taiwan will ensue. They say among themselves that they have three things they would ask of the United States. They will ask that the United States refrain from transporting mainland troops to Taiwan as was done after the Japanese surrender. They will ask that America send technical and administrative advisors to Taiwan to help it through a crisis in which they are determined not to be engulfed in mainland chaos. And they will ask America to lend financial and material support in the rehabilitation of commerce and industry, which they feel could be hastened under a policy of free trade and enterprise emphasizing independent trade abroad rather than (as now) exclusively with the Government’s Trading Bureau and other official agencies.
Respectfully yours,
Ralph J. Blake
Chiang Kai-shek, President of the National Government of the Republic of China.↩
General of the Army Douglas A. MacArthur, Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers, Japan.↩
Incident of July 19, 1946, in the vicinity of Tokyo’s Shibuya Station, in which a dozen or so Formosans were fired upon by Tokyo police.↩
The Government General of Taiwan was organized at the time of the Japanese military surrender and the occupation of the island by the Chinese on October 25, 1945; unlike other provinces of China, this was not a regular provincial government, as the Governor General, with an unusual relationship to the Chinese Executive Yuan, wielded almost autocratic powers.↩
General MacArthur’s command.↩